Authors: Stenly Tangkuman BoSuk Yang
Publish Date: 2012/01/08
Volume: 25, Issue: 12, Pages: 2979-2985
Abstract
Predicting machine degradation before final failure occurs is very important This paper presents a method to predict the future state of machine degradation based on grey model and onestepahead forecasting technique Specifically the feasibility of grey model as a predictor for machine degradation prognostics system has been investigated Grey model GM11 has employed to forecast the future state of machine degradation but the result is not satisfactory Finally a modification of GM11 has made to improve the accuracy of prediction However the model was built by using only four input data it is able to track closely the sudden change of machine degradation condition Real trending data of low methane compressor acquired from condition monitoring routine are employed for evaluating the proposed methodStenly Tangkuman received BEng and MEng degrees in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Sam Ratulangi and the Institute Technology of Bandung Indonesia in 1999 and 2006 respectively Now he is a PhD student in Pukyong National University in South Korea His research interest is machine condition prognosticsBoSuk Yang is a professor in Department of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering Pukyong National University in South Korea He received his PhD degree in Mechanical Engineering from Kobe University Japan in 1985 His research interests are machine condition monitoring fault diagnostics and prognostics
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