Authors: Elizabeth L Malone Antoinette L Brenkert
Publish Date: 2008/10/03
Volume: 91, Issue: 3-4, Pages: 451-476
Abstract
This study builds on an earlier analysis of resilience of India and Indian states to climate change The previous study Brenkert and Malone Clim Change 7257–102 2005 assessed current resilience this research uses the Vulnerability–Resilience Indicators Model VRIM to project resilience to 2095 and to perform an uncertainty analysis on the deterministic results Projections utilized two SRESbased scenarios one with fastandhigh growth one with delayed growth A detailed comparison of two states the Punjab and Orissa points to the kinds of insights that can be obtained using the VRIM The scenarios differ most significantly in the timing of the uncertainty in economic prosperity represented by GDP per capita as a major factor in explaining the uncertainty in the resilience index In the fastandhigh growth scenario the states differ most markedly regarding the role of ecosystem sensitivity land use and water availability The uncertainty analysis shows for example that resilience in the Punjab might be enhanced especially in the delayed growth scenario if early attention is paid to the impact of ecosystems sensitivity on environmental wellbeing of the state By the same token later in the century landuse pressures might be avoided if land is managed through intensification rather than extensification of agricultural land Thus this methodology illustrates how a policy maker can be informed about where to focus attention on specific issues by understanding the potential changes at a specific location and time—and thus what might yield desired outcomes Model results can point to further analyses of the potential for resiliencebuilding
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