Authors: Jiongxin Xu
Publish Date: 2015/03/17
Volume: 130, Issue: 4, Pages: 619-634
Abstract
Highresolution and highprecision paleohydrological reconstruction is important both in science and in engineering practice Here we show that the stalagmite δ18O record can be used for paleohydrological reconstruction in a monsoon affected area in China Using the cave δ18O record established by Zhang et al Science 322940–942 2008 we established a regression equation which indicates that the 5point moving average of the Wanxiang Cave δ18O δ18O5m can explain 59 of the variation in the 5point moving average of annual river flow Q wD5m at Danjiangkou of the Hanjiang River Using this equation we reconstructed Q wD5m for the period from 197 AD to 2001 The project of water transfer from south China to north WTFSCTN aims to solve the problem of serious water shortage in the north China plain and reasonable estimation of amount of the water diversion is crucially important Based on the reconstructed long series of Q wD5m 197–2001 we reassessed the statistical characteristics of the measured Q wD5m in short series 1932–2006 — based on the latter the amount of water diversion was designed The results show that the short series seriously over estimates the annual Q wD5m for very dry 188 larger and extremely dry 215 larger years and considerale bias would be yielded when the water diversion amount is determined only based on the short series In case some very dry years occur the situation would be serious either for the WTFSCTN water supply or for the ecosystems downstream from the Danjiangkou ReservoirThe financial support from the Natural Science Foundation of China grant no 41371037 41330751 41071016 is gratefully acknowledged I thank Prof Pingzhong Zhang for his permission to use the Wanxiang Cave δ18O data and thank the three anonymous reviewers whose comments and suggestion are valuable for the improvement of the manuscript
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