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Title of Journal: Climatic Change

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Abbravation: Climatic Change

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Springer Netherlands

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1573-1480

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Temperature variations and rice yields in China h

Authors: Pin Wang Zhao Zhang Xiao Song Yi Chen Xing Wei Peijun Shi Fulu Tao
Publish Date: 2014/05/01
Volume: 124, Issue: 4, Pages: 777-789
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Abstract

Temperature is the principal factor that determines rice growth development and ultimately grain yield In this study normal growingdegreedays NGDD and killing growingdegreedays KGDD were used to capture the different effects of normal and extreme temperatures on rice yields respectively Based on these indexes we assessed the contributions of temperature variations to countylevel rice yields across China during the historical period 1980–2008 and estimated the potential exposure of rice to extreme temperature stress in the near future 2021–2050 The results showed that historical temperature variations had measurable impacts on rice yields with a distinct spatial pattern for different regions such variations had contributed much to the increased rice yields in Northeast China Region I 059  yield year−1 and some portions of the YunnanGuizhou Plateau Region II 034  yield year−1 but seriously hindered the improvements of rice yields in the Sichuan Basin SB −029  yield year−1 and the southern cultivation areas Region IV −017  yield year−1 for the entire country half of the contributions were positive and the other half were negative resulting in a balance pattern with an average of 001  yield year−1 Under the RCP85 scenario climate warming during 2021–2050 would substantially reduce cold stress but increase heat stress in the rice planting areas across China For the future period Region I II and eastern China would be continually exposed to more severe cold stress than the other regions Region III including SB and the midlower reaches of Yangtze River MLRYR would be the hot spot of heat stressThis study was funded by the National Basic Research Program of China 2012CB955404 the Programme of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities B08008 and the Integrated Risk Governance Project 2013DFG20710 by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China

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