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Title of Journal: Climatic Change

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Abbravation: Climatic Change

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Springer Netherlands

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DOI

10.1007/s11055-011-9553-z

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1573-1480

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Projected climate change impacts on vegetation dis

Authors: Irfan Rashid Shakil Ahmad Romshoo Rajiv Kumar Chaturvedi N H Ravindranath Raman Sukumar Mathangi Jayaraman Thatiparthi Vijaya Lakshmi Jagmohan Sharma
Publish Date: 2015/07/05
Volume: 132, Issue: 4, Pages: 601-613
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Abstract

Despite high vulnerability the impact of climate change on Himalayan ecosystem has not been properly investigated primarily due to the inadequacy of observed data and the complex topography In this study we mapped the current vegetation distribution in Kashmir Himalayas from NOAA AVHRR and projected it under A1B SRES RCP45 and RCP85 climate scenarios using the vegetation dynamics modelIBIS at a spatial resolution of 05° The distribution of vegetation under the changing climate was simulated for the 21st century Climate change projections from the PRECIS experiment using the HADRM3 model for the Kashmir region were validated using the observed climate data from two observatories Both the observed as well as the projected climate data showed statistically significant trends IBIS was validated for Kashmir Himalayas by comparing the simulated vegetation distribution with the observed distribution The baseline simulated scenario of vegetation 1960–1990 showed 8715  agreement with the observed vegetation distribution thereby increasing the credibility of the projected vegetation distribution under the changing climate over the region According to the model projections grasslands and tropical deciduous forests in the region would be severely affected while as savannah shrubland temperate evergreen broadleaf forest boreal evergreen forest and mixed forest types would colonize the area currently under the cold desert/rock/ice land cover types The model predicted that a substantial area of land presently under the permanent snow and ice cover would disappear by the end of the century which might severely impact stream flows agriculture productivity and biodiversity in the region

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