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Title of Journal: Climatic Change

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Abbravation: Climatic Change

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Springer Netherlands

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DOI

10.1002/ange.19270404613

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ISSN

1573-1480

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Benefits of dealing with uncertainty in greenhouse

Authors: Matthias Jonas Gregg Marland Wilfried Winiwarter Thomas White Zbigniew Nahorski Rostyslav Bun Sten Nilsson
Publish Date: 2010/07/15
Volume: 103, Issue: 1-2, Pages: 3-18
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Abstract

The assessment of greenhouse gases emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on the international political and scientific agendas Growing international concern and cooperation regarding the climate change problem have increased the need for policyoriented solutions to the issue of uncertainty in and related to inventories of greenhouse gas GHG emissions The approaches to addressing uncertainty discussed in this Special Issue reflect attempts to improve national inventories not only for their own sake but also from a wider systems analytical perspective—a perspective that seeks to strengthen the usefulness of national inventories under a compliance and/or global monitoring and reporting framework These approaches demonstrate the benefits of including inventory uncertainty in policy analyses The authors of the contributed papers show that considering uncertainty helps avoid situations that can for example create a false sense of certainty or lead to invalid views of subsystems This may eventually prevent related errors from showing up in analyses However considering uncertainty does not come for free Proper treatment of uncertainty is costly and demanding because it forces us to make the step from “simple to complex” and only then to discuss potential simplifications Finally comprehensive treatment of uncertainty does not offer policymakers quick and easy solutions The authors of the papers in this Special Issue do however agree that uncertainty analysis must be a key component of national GHG inventory analysis Uncertainty analysis helps to provide a greater understanding and better science helps us to reduce and deal with uncertainty By recognizing the importance of identifying and quantifying uncertainties great strides can be made in ongoing discussions regarding GHG inventories and accounting for climate change The 17 papers in this Special Issue deal with many aspects of analyzing and dealing with uncertainty in emissions estimates

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Other Papers In This Journal:
  1. On long range dependence in global surface temperature series
  2. Fire and sustainability: considerations for California’s altered future climate
  3. Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector
  4. Climate change effects on winter chill for tree crops with chilling requirements on the Arabian Peninsula
  5. Potential for growing Arabica coffee in the extreme south of Brazil in a warmer world
  6. Impact of climate change on U.S. building energy demand: sensitivity to spatiotemporal scales, balance point temperature, and population distribution
  7. Facilitating adaptation of biodiversity to climate change: a conceptual framework applied to the world’s largest Mediterranean-climate woodland
  8. How stakeholders handle uncertainty in a local climate adaptation governance network
  9. An interactive multi-scale integrated assessment of future regional water availability for agricultural irrigation in East Anglia and North West England
  10. Influences of local weather, large-scale climatic drivers, and the ca . 11 year solar cycle on lake ice breakup dates; 1905–2004
  11. Non-linear responses of glaciated prairie wetlands to climate warming
  12. Potential effect of climate change on observed fire regimes in the Cordilleran forests of South-Central Interior, British Columbia
  13. Climate change impacts and adaptations: lessons learned from the greater Zambeze River Valley and beyond
  14. Near-term prediction of impact-relevant extreme temperature indices
  15. Temperature variations and rice yields in China: historical contributions and future trends
  16. A rose by any other name ...?: What members of the general public prefer to call “climate change”
  17. Safeguarding the future of oceanic fisheries under climate change depends on timely preparation
  18. Mapping current and future potential snakebite risk in the new world
  19. Uncertainty in resilience to climate change in India and Indian states
  20. To what extent can a long-term temperature target guide near-term climate change commitments?
  21. Drivers of change in Brazil’s carbon dioxide emissions
  22. Predicting future threats to the long-term survival of Gila trout using a high-resolution simulation of climate change
  23. Potential impact of climate change on ecosystems of the Barents Sea Region
  24. A pioneer country? A history of Norwegian climate politics
  25. Linking Inuit knowledge and meteorological station observations to understand changing wind patterns at Clyde River, Nunavut
  26. Impacts of future climatic and land cover changes on the hydrological regime of the Madeira River basin
  27. Changing sea ice conditions and marine transportation activity in Canadian Arctic waters between 1990 and 2012
  28. Managing CO 2 emission from groundwater pumping for irrigating major crops in trans indo-gangetic plains of India
  29. Recent trends in temperature and precipitation over the Balearic Islands (Spain)
  30. Meat consumption and climate change: the role of non-governmental organizations
  31. Natural hazards in Australia: floods
  32. Urbanization, climate change and flood policy in the United States
  33. Cultural spaces of climate
  34. Climate change vulnerability assessment of the urban forest in three Canadian cities
  35. Mitigating methane emissions from livestock: a global analysis of sectoral policies
  36. A 101 year record of windstorms in the Netherlands
  37. Local perceptions in climate change debates: insights from case studies in the Alps and the Andes
  38. Land use and land cover tools for climate adaptation
  39. The economics of avoiding dangerous climate change. An editorial essay on The Stern Review
  40. The optimal choice of residue management, crop rotations, and cost of carbon sequestration: empirical results in the Midwest US
  41. Gender and occupational perspectives on adaptation to climate extremes in the Afram Plains of Ghana
  42. Seasonal variability of the observed and the projected daily temperatures in northern Saudi Arabia
  43. Impacts of climate change on August stream discharge in the Central-Rocky Mountains
  44. Paleo-hydrologic reconstruction based on stalagmite δ 18 O and re-assessment of river flow above the Danjiangkou Dam, China
  45. Rainfall characteristics for periglacial debris flows in the Swiss Alps: past incidences–potential future evolutions
  46. Increased probability of fire during late Holocene droughts in northern New England
  47. Mapping the ideological networks of American climate politics
  48. Risk management tools for sustainable fisheries management under changing climate: a sea cucumber example
  49. Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios
  50. Local indications of climate changes in Turkey: Bursa as a case example
  51. Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas
  52. Getting from here to there – energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF27 scenarios
  53. Reducing flood risks in rural households: survey of perception and adaptation in the Mekong delta
  54. Spatial and temporal variation in climate change: a bird’s eye view
  55. Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of China
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