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Title of Journal: Climatic Change

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Abbravation: Climatic Change

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Springer Netherlands

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DOI

10.1002/smll.201001297

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1573-1480

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Impact of climate change on US building energy d

Authors: Jianhua Huang Kevin Robert Gurney
Publish Date: 2016/04/28
Volume: 137, Issue: 1-2, Pages: 171-185
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Abstract

Past assessments of climate change impacts on building energy consumption have typically neglected spatial variations in the “balance point” temperature population distribution effects and the extremes at smaller spatiotemporal scales where the impacts of climate change are most pronounced Here we test the impact of these limitations through a sensitivity analysis in the Contiguous United States Though national/annual total source energy consumption differences between the 2080–99 time period and the present are less than 2  we find changes at the state/month scale that are much larger with summer electricity demand increases exceeding 50  and spring nonelectric energy declines of 48  by the end of the century The use of a fixed 183 °C 65 °F balance point temperature versus a more representative statespecific value leads to an overestimate of the energy consumption changes in most states with a maximum change in the state of Oregon of almost 14 percentage points Finally projected population redistribution when combined with the spatial pattern of climate change exacerbates the building energy consumption impacts further increasing source energy consumption in some states max = +53 percentage points and further diminishing energy consumption declines in others max = −82 percentage points When integrated over the US the intersection of projected population distribution changes and climate change shifts future building energy consumption from a net decrease to a net increaseWe would like to thank the National Science Foundation CAREER award 0846358 the Department of Energy grant DESC0006105 and Amazon cloud computing resources provided by Amazon Climate Research Grant Program We would also like to thank Matei Georgescu for helpful insights

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