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Title of Journal: Climatic Change

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Abbravation: Climatic Change

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Springer Netherlands

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DOI

10.1007/978-1-4615-1533-3_33

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1573-1480

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Rainfall characteristics for periglacial debris fl

Authors: Markus Stoffel Michelle Bollschweiler Martin Beniston
Publish Date: 2011/02/08
Volume: 105, Issue: 1-2, Pages: 263-280
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Abstract

Based on observational meteorological data since AD 1864 and treering records of debrisflow activity this paper assesses changes in rainfall characteristics and their impact on the triggering of geomorphic events in a highelevation watershed of the Swiss Alps since the end of the Little Ice Age No trends are visible in the frequency of heavy rainfall events but we observe a reduced number of heavy shortlived rainfalls in summer and a concentration of advective storms is recorded in late summer and early fall since the late 1980s These changes in triggering meteorological conditions resulted in a cluster of debris flows in the early decades of the twentieth century and a lowering of debrisflow activity since the mid 1990s and may be mirroring the observed changes in persistent highpressure systems over the Alps We also observe intraseasonal differences in debrisflow system response reflecting the state of the permafrost body in the source area of debris flows allowing for very small debris flows to be released by limited rainfall inputs 20 mm in June and July The same quantities of rain will not trigger debris flows in August or September when a thick active layer of the permafrost body is capable of absorbing water With the projected amplitude of climatic change seasonality return intervals and volumes of debris flows are likely to be altered RCM projections based on the IPCC A2 scenario suggest a decrease in heavy summer rainfalls which will most likely result in a further reduction of the overall frequency of debris flows leaving more time for sediment to accumulate in the channel Such an increase of channel accumulation rates along with the projected destabilization of the steep rockglacier body is likely in turn to exert control ultimately on sediment volumes released from the source areas during future events Observations from adjacent catchments suggest that extremely large debris flows beyond historical experience could occur at the study site and in similar debrisflow systems of the Valais Alps originating from periglacial environments

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