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Title of Journal: Climatic Change

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Abbravation: Climatic Change

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Springer Netherlands

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DOI

10.1016/j.agee.2016.03.040

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1573-1480

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On long range dependence in global surface tempera

Authors: Michael E Mann
Publish Date: 2010/12/23
Volume: 107, Issue: 3-4, Pages: 267-276
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Abstract

Long Range Dependence LRD scaling behavior has been argued to characterize longterm surface temperature time series LRD is typically measured by the socalled “Hurst” coefficient “H” Using synthetic temperature time series generated by a simple climate model with known physics I demonstrate that the values of H obtained for observational temperature time series can be understood in terms of the linear response to past estimated natural and anthropogenic external radiative forcing combined with the effects of random white noise weather forcing The precise value of H is seen to depend on the particular noise realization The overall distribution obtained over an ensemble of noise realizations is seen to be a function of the relative amplitude of external forcing and internal stochastic variability and additionally in climate “proxy” records the amount of nonclimatic noise present There is no obvious reason to appeal to more exotic physics for an explanation of the apparent scaling behavior in observed temperature data

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