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Title of Journal: Climatic Change

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Abbravation: Climatic Change

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Springer Netherlands

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DOI

10.1016/0168-1605(94)90211-9

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1573-1480

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Mapping current and future potential snakebite ris

Authors: Carlos YañezArenas A Townsend Peterson Karla RodríguezMedina Narayani Barve
Publish Date: 2015/11/02
Volume: 134, Issue: 4, Pages: 697-711
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Abstract

Snakebite envenoming is an important public health concern worldwide In the Americas ~300000 bites occur annually leaving 84110–140981 envenomings and 652–3466 deaths Here we modeled current and future snakebite risk using ecological niche models ENMs of 90 venomous snake taxa Current snakebite risk predictions were corroborated by incidence data from eight regions/periods with different characteristics Detailed projections of potential future range shifts on distributions of the medically most relevant species indicated that North American species’ ranges are likely to increase in the future but mixed results were obtained for Latin American snakes A likely expansion of overall risk area and an increase of rural population at risk were observed from a consensus model among future scenarios Our study highlights the capacity of ENMs to provide detailed information on current and future potential distributions of venomous snakes as well as useful perspectives on snakebite risk at least broad scales

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