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Title of Journal: Climatic Change

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Abbravation: Climatic Change

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Springer Netherlands

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DOI

10.1002/jcb.240490205

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1573-1480

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Impacts of climate change on August stream dischar

Authors: Jason C Leppi Thomas H DeLuca Solomon W Harrar Steven W Running
Publish Date: 2011/09/09
Volume: 112, Issue: 3-4, Pages: 997-1014
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Abstract

In the snowmelt dominated hydrology of arid western US landscapes late summer low streamflow is the most vulnerable period for aquatic ecosystem habitats and trout populations This study analyzes mean August discharge at 153 streams throughout the Central Rocky Mountains of North America CRMs for changes in discharge from 1950–2008 The purpose of this study was to determine if 1 Mean August stream discharge values have decreased over the last halfcentury 2 Low discharge values are occurring more frequently 3 Climatic variables are influencing August discharge trends Here we use a strict selection process to characterize gauging stations based on amount of anthropogenic impact in order to identify heavily impacted rivers and understand the relationship between climatic variables and discharge trends Using historic United States Geologic Survey discharge data we analyzed data for trends of 40–59 years Combining of these records along with aerial photos and water rights records we selected gauging stations based on the length and continuity of discharge records and categorized each based on the amount of diversion Variables that could potentially influence discharge such as change in vegetation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation PDO were examined but we found that that both did not significantly influence August discharge patterns Our analyses indicate that nonregulated watersheds are experiencing substantial declines in stream discharge and we have found that 89 of all nonregulated stations exhibit a declining slope Additionally our results here indicate a significant α ≤ 010 decline in discharge from 1951–2008 for the CRMs Correlations results at our pristine sites show a negative relationship between air temperatures and discharge and these results coupled with increasing air temperature trends pose serious concern for aquatic ecosystems in CRMsWe would like to thank Joel Harper for his scientific insight Ryan Anderson for extended help with R coding Dr Ke Zhang for extended help with time series analysis in R and Dr Graham for statistical advice The data for this project was graciously provided by USGS Montana DNRC West Map Climate Initiative Inside Idaho Montana State Library and PRISM group The project would not have been possible without financial support from The Wilderness Society

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