Journal Title
Title of Journal: Climatic Change
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Abbravation: Climatic Change
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Publisher
Springer Netherlands
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Authors: Andrew D Jones Katherine V Calvin William D Collins James Edmonds
Publish Date: 2015/04/22
Volume: 131, Issue: 4, Pages: 691-703
Abstract
We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change LULCC within an integrated assessment model the Global Change Assessment Model GCAM The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model We find that conversion of 1 km2 of woody vegetation forest and shrublands to nonwoody vegetation crops and grassland yields between 0 and −071 nW/m2 of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics snow dynamics and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic within each of 151 regions we consider globally Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC we find LULCC forcing ranging from −006 to −029 W/m2 by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 15 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 45 Wm−2 corresponding to a 12–67 change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedoinduced warming through additional emissions reductions and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedoinduced cooling In all scenarios considered inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globallyThis research was supported by the Office of Science of the US Department of Energy as part of the Improving the Representations of HumanEarth System Interactions Project This work used the Community Earth System Model CESM and the Global Change Assessment Model GCAM The National Science Foundation and the Office of Science of the US Department of Energy support the CESM project The authors acknowledge longterm support for GCAM development from the Integrated Assessment Research Program in the Office of Science of the US Department of Energy This research used resources of the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center which is supported by the Office of Science of the US Department of Energy under Contract No DEAC020 5CH11231 Battelle Memorial Institute operates the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for DOE under contract DEAC0676RLO 1830 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory is supported by the US Department of Energy under Contract No DEAC020 5CH11231
Keywords:
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- Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector
- Climate change effects on winter chill for tree crops with chilling requirements on the Arabian Peninsula
- Potential for growing Arabica coffee in the extreme south of Brazil in a warmer world
- Impact of climate change on U.S. building energy demand: sensitivity to spatiotemporal scales, balance point temperature, and population distribution
- Facilitating adaptation of biodiversity to climate change: a conceptual framework applied to the world’s largest Mediterranean-climate woodland
- How stakeholders handle uncertainty in a local climate adaptation governance network
- An interactive multi-scale integrated assessment of future regional water availability for agricultural irrigation in East Anglia and North West England
- Influences of local weather, large-scale climatic drivers, and the ca . 11 year solar cycle on lake ice breakup dates; 1905–2004
- Non-linear responses of glaciated prairie wetlands to climate warming
- Potential effect of climate change on observed fire regimes in the Cordilleran forests of South-Central Interior, British Columbia
- Climate change impacts and adaptations: lessons learned from the greater Zambeze River Valley and beyond
- Near-term prediction of impact-relevant extreme temperature indices
- Temperature variations and rice yields in China: historical contributions and future trends
- A rose by any other name ...?: What members of the general public prefer to call “climate change”
- Safeguarding the future of oceanic fisheries under climate change depends on timely preparation
- Mapping current and future potential snakebite risk in the new world
- Uncertainty in resilience to climate change in India and Indian states
- To what extent can a long-term temperature target guide near-term climate change commitments?
- Drivers of change in Brazil’s carbon dioxide emissions
- Predicting future threats to the long-term survival of Gila trout using a high-resolution simulation of climate change
- Potential impact of climate change on ecosystems of the Barents Sea Region
- A pioneer country? A history of Norwegian climate politics
- Linking Inuit knowledge and meteorological station observations to understand changing wind patterns at Clyde River, Nunavut
- Impacts of future climatic and land cover changes on the hydrological regime of the Madeira River basin
- Changing sea ice conditions and marine transportation activity in Canadian Arctic waters between 1990 and 2012
- Managing CO 2 emission from groundwater pumping for irrigating major crops in trans indo-gangetic plains of India
- Recent trends in temperature and precipitation over the Balearic Islands (Spain)
- Meat consumption and climate change: the role of non-governmental organizations
- Natural hazards in Australia: floods
- Urbanization, climate change and flood policy in the United States
- Cultural spaces of climate
- Climate change vulnerability assessment of the urban forest in three Canadian cities
- Mitigating methane emissions from livestock: a global analysis of sectoral policies
- Benefits of dealing with uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories: introduction
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- Land use and land cover tools for climate adaptation
- The economics of avoiding dangerous climate change. An editorial essay on The Stern Review
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- Paleo-hydrologic reconstruction based on stalagmite δ 18 O and re-assessment of river flow above the Danjiangkou Dam, China
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- Increased probability of fire during late Holocene droughts in northern New England
- Mapping the ideological networks of American climate politics
- Risk management tools for sustainable fisheries management under changing climate: a sea cucumber example
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- Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas
- Getting from here to there – energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF27 scenarios
- Reducing flood risks in rural households: survey of perception and adaptation in the Mekong delta
- Spatial and temporal variation in climate change: a bird’s eye view
- Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of China
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