Exploring the epidemic transmission network of SAR

Authors: BiSong Hu JianHua Gong Jun Sun JiePing Zhou

Publish Date: 2012/11/08

Volume: 58, Issue: 15, Pages: 1818-1831

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Abstract

The changing spatiotemporal patterns of the individual susceptibleinfectedsymptomatictreatedrecovered epidemic process and the interactions of information/material flows between regions along with the 2002–2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS epidemiological investigation data in mainland China including three typical locations of individuals working unit/home address onset location and reporting unit are used to define the inout flow of the SARS epidemic spread Moreover the input/output transmission networks of the SARS epidemic are built according to the definition of inout flow The spatiotemporal distribution of the SARS inout flow spatial distribution and temporal change of node characteristic parameters and the structural characteristics of the SARS transmission networks are comprehensively and systematically explored The results show that 1 Beijing and Guangdong had the highest risk of selfspread and output cases and prevention/control measures directed toward selfspread cases in Beijing should have focused on the later period of the SARS epidemic 2 the SARS transmission networks in mainland China had significant clustering characteristics with two clustering areas of output cases centered in Beijing and Guangdong 3 Guangdong was the original source of the SARS epidemic and while the infected cases of most other provinces occurred mainly during the early period there was no significant spread to the surrounding provinces in contrast although the input/output interactions between Beijing and the other provinces countrywide began during the midlate epidemic period SARS in Beijing showed a significant capacity for spatial spreading 4 Guangdong had a significant range of spatial spreading throughout the entire epidemic period while Beijing and its surrounding provinces formed a separate significant range of highrisk spreading during the midlate period especially in late period the influence range of Beijing’s neighboring provinces such as Hebei was even slightly larger than that of Beijing and 5 the input network had a lowintensity spread capacity and middlelevel influence range while the output network had an extensive highintensity spread capacity and influence range that covered almost the entire country and this spread and influence indicated that significant clustering characteristics increased gradually This analysis of the epidemic inout flow and its corresponding transmission network helps reveal the potential spatiotemporal characteristics and evolvement mechanism of the SARS epidemic and provides more effective theoretical support for prevention and control measuresThis article is published under an open access license Please check the Copyright Information section for details of this license and what reuse is permitted If your intended use exceeds what is permitted by the license or if you are unable to locate the licence and reuse information please contact the Rights and Permissions team

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