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Title of Journal: Parasitol Res

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Abbravation: Parasitology Research

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Springer-Verlag

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DOI

10.1007/s12129-996-1001-0

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1432-1955

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A stochastic model of Emphasis Type="Italic"Echi

Authors: Tomohiko Nishina Hirofumi Ishikawa
Publish Date: 2007/12/06
Volume: 102, Issue: 3, Pages: 465-479
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Abstract

Echinococcus multilocularis causes human alveolar echinococcus In Japan high prevalence of E multilocularis among the fox population has been reported throughout Hokkaido Accordingly control measures such as fox hunting and the distribution of bait containing Praziquantel have been conducted This study developed a transmission model for individuals in the fox population and included a stochastic infection process to assess the prevalence of E multilocularis To make our model realistic we used the worm burden for each individual in the fox population We assumed that the worm burden depends on the number of protoscoleces in a predated vole and the number of infection experiences We carried out stochastic simulations with 1000 trials for the situations of Koshimizu and Sapporo Hokkaido Japan The distribution of the worm burden among foxes obtained using the model agreed with dissection data The simulation indicates that a careful choice of season is necessary for an effective distribution of Praziquantelcontaining bait A stochastic model for E multilocularis which can assess the range of the prevalence in the fox population would be helpful in analyzing their complex lifecycle and also in designing control strategiesWe appreciate the helpful comments of Profs M Kamiya and Y Oku of Hokkaido University and A Ishii of the Jichi Medical School Jissen Women’s University This work was supported in part by a GrantinAid for Scientific Research from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Grant No 16540105 and by a GrantinAid from the Ministry of Health Labor and Welfare Japan for “Research for Emerging and Reemerging Infections” grant no H17Shinkouippan 019

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